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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still