A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
