The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels The Villans' Improbable Title Charge
A mere 60 days in the past that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.